Long-term variability of the thermohaline state of the Arctic transpolar system (historical data)
Data on temperature and salinity in the Arctic Ocean will be analyzed for the time period from the 1950s to 2016. Temperature and salinity fields will be reconstructed for the Arctic Basin in winter by means of modeling and extrapolation on a regular grid with 200x200-km cells. Years with a limited number of observations will be filled in with model results. The average characteristics of the upper layer, and the Atlantic and bottom layers of the Arctic transpolar system and their changes will be analyzed. The task team will build a model in order to simu-late the variability of long-term climate characteristics of the Arctic transpolar system and to assess hydrometeorological impacts on the Arctic Ocean. The interannual variability of the ice cover of the Greenland, Barents and Kara seas will be investigated and used in statistical models that will relate any variability in sea ice to regional and global hydro-meteorological pro¬cesses. The impact of the ice cover on the North Atlantic will also be assessed.
Using the method of principal components, the team will calculate fields of average tem¬pera-ture, salinity and thickness of the upper, Atlantic and bottom layers of the Arctic trans¬polar system. Furthermore, statistical models based on empirical orthogonal functions will investi-gate the variability of the main characteristics of the transpolar system, also consi¬der¬ing internal linkages and the impact of external hydro-meteorological processes. The team will further assess the long-term climate variability of the main features of the Arctic transpolar system and develop forecast scenarios for longer-term changes in the Arctic Ocean.
AARI will analyze the field data on temperature and salinity in the Arctic Ocean for the period from 1950 to 2016 as well as reconstruct temperature and salinity fields for winters with insufficient observations. The group will also analyze the interannual variability of the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean and the Greenland, Barents and Kara seas, and model the varia-bility of the ice cover to assess its influence on the North Atlantic and the climate in Europe. AWI will contribute to compiling data on the climate indices (North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, etc.) and support the statistical evaluation of the mean characteristics of the different layers of the Arctic transpolar system for the time period from 1950 to 2015.
|Leonid Timokhov||Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute|
|Jens Hoelemann||Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research|
|Markus Janout||Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research|
|Torsten Kanzow||Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research|
|Valery Karpiy||Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute|